Kumar Bahukhandi
Chief Advisor to the Interim Government of Bangladesh, Mohammad Yunus – Photo: ANI
While the Yunus government is certainly seeking Hasina’s extradition from India, it seems doubtful that the Bangladesh Army chief would take the risk of bringing her back. However, there are indications that he is considering changes in the top leadership to create an environment for national elections.
Bangladesh Army Chief General Waqar-uz-Zaman recently told a leading editor that he was disappointed with the “failure” of the interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus to control the fast deteriorating law and order situation in the country. He reportedly expressed “serious doubts” whether the Yunus administration can actually hold free and fair elections in the near future.
General Waqar is a conservative and safe-going military leader who resisted both military and external provocations to take direct control of the country by imposing martial law after the ouster of the Sheikh Hasina government in August last year. From what he told some of his close friends, some of whom told this writer that military rule has never been popular in Bangladesh and generals like Ziaur Rahman and HM Ershad soon faced public displeasure.
Even the army-backed caretaker government (2006-08) led by then army chief Moeen U Ahmed became unpopular as demands for fresh elections grew. So knowing that direct military rule was becoming increasingly unpopular across the world, Waqar decided to keep the army away from directly taking charge. According to information from those close to him, the army chief is keen to hold elections as soon as possible and then let the elected government take over. The longer the interim government lasts and fails to control law and order as well as the economy, the army will be blamed. When a violent mob of students and fundamentalists demolished the museum located in the house of Bangladesh’s founder Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the army’s image only got tarnished when the soldiers remained silent.
General Waqar’s decision not to fire on agitating students and not to indulge in bloodshed in July-August last year was welcomed across the country. But the image of the army as a mute spectator amid the chaos all around is not appealing to those who want stability and security. Some people are already raising questions as to how the army, which is unable to restore law and order in the country, can be given the responsibility of UN peacekeeping. Army Chief General Waqar has started realizing that he will have to act decisively instead of just making promises. This is also important because it was General Waqar who took the initiative to establish an interim government after consultations with political parties, civil society and student agitators after the Hasina-led Awami League government was ousted from power.
The Army Chief, in his first address to the nation after Hasina’s ouster from power, said that he is taking the responsibility of restoring normalcy and also promised to restore political order as soon as possible. Though the army chief has so far strongly supported Yunus and his government, he became uneasy when he realised that the Nobel laureate was not interested in holding early elections and wanted to push through reforms first. This uneasiness came to the fore when General Waqar unilaterally said that elections would be held only in 2025, while Yunus was in the US at the time.
Bangladeshi military sources say General Waqar is in serious consultations with his commanders and the heads of the intelligence services to find a way out of the morass. As Yunus and the students prepare to launch their own party and hold elections to student unions and local bodies across the country after Ramadan, the army may pressurise Yunus to announce a clear roadmap for parliamentary elections. If Yunus refuses to do so, the army chief, after getting assurances of full support from the army, may either ask President Shahabuddin Chupu to exercise his emergency powers, or forcefully restore law and order using the magisterial powers already enjoyed by the army. Alternatively, he may pressurise the president to dismiss the interim government, which has no constitutional basis, and replace it with a caretaker government. A recent court order has brought back the provision of caretaker administration, which the Hasina government had abolished after coming to power in 2009.
A caretaker administration with representation from major political parties and prominent civil society groups could provide General Waqar with a roadmap to hold early elections. Some speculations have also raised the possibility that General Waqar could bring Sheikh Hasina back from India and make her the prime minister, as the president has said that she has not officially resigned. Such speculations have gained further strength after Hasina’s recent statement on social media that ‘Allah has kept me alive so that I can return and punish those responsible for the killing of my people and policemen.’ She said this while living in exile in Delhi, which has further fueled rumours that Hasina will soon return to Bangladesh. The Yunus government is seeking Hasina’s extradition so that she can be prosecuted. It seems doubtful whether the army chief will take the risk of bringing him back, as this could create a major new crisis. But there are indications that the army chief is considering changes at the top level to prevent chaos and create an atmosphere for national elections.
