Kumar Bahukhandi
If Russian President Vladimir Putin starts a war against the whole of Europe, he will be in a lot of trouble. (All file photos: Reuters)
Russia has 5580 nuclear weapons and 1.5 million soldiers, but it cannot fight NATO (3.5 million soldiers) alone. Russia has suffered heavy losses in Ukraine. The next front may open in the Baltic countries or Poland, but NATO’s strength and Poland’s military preparedness are a challenge for Russia.
Russia is one of the largest military powers in the world, especially in terms of nuclear weapons. Here are some important figures…
*Nuclear weapons: Russia has about 5580 nuclear weapons, the most in the world. These weapons are four times more powerful than the bombs dropped by the US on Hiroshima and Nagasaki
*Active troops: In September 2024, Putin ordered the Russian army to be increased to 15 million active soldiers, making it the second largest army in the world (after China).
*Tanks and artillery: Russia has 12500 tanks, 30000 armored vehicles and 6500 artillery (artillery/MLRS). However, many old weapons have been destroyed in the Ukraine war.
*Nuclear strategy: Russia has deployed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Both countries conduct joint military exercises.
*Military budget: Russia spends 6.2% of its GDP (in 2024) on military expenditure, which is more than many NATO countries.
Weaknesses…
*Ukraine war losses: Russia has lost more than 300,000 soldiers (killed, wounded or missing) and thousands of tanks and equipment in Ukraine.
*Economic situation: Russia’s budget deficit was 1.8 trillion rubles in 2023, as oil prices remained below the G7’s $60 per barrel limit.
*Old weapons: Many of Russia’s weapons are from the Soviet era, which are less effective than modern NATO weapons.
*Military strength of NATO and Europe
NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) has 31 countries, including powerful countries like the US, Britain, France, Germany and Poland. Here are some figures of NATO’s strength…
*Military spending: NATO countries spend more than $1.3 trillion on defense in 2024, which is much more than Russia’s military budget (about $84 billion).
*Active Troops: NATO has a total military strength of over 3.5 million, including the US (1.3 million), Turkey (4,81,000), and Poland (2,16,100).
*Modern Weapons: NATO has 5,000+ modern artillery pieces and 1,668 5th generation armored vehicles, while Russia has none.
*Nuclear Weapons: NATO countries (mainly the US and France) have 6,000+ nuclear weapons.
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Strength of Poland…
Poland is NATO’s largest defense spender, spending 4.7% of its GDP (in 2024). Poland’s army has 216,100 active servicemen. There are plans to increase this to 300,000 by 2035. Poland has purchased 1,000+ tanks and 600 artillery pieces, which is more than the combined strength of Britain, France, Germany and Italy.
Strength of the Baltic countries…
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are small countries, but their defense is strong with NATO support. Lithuania will spend 5% of its GDP on defense in 2025. NATO has deployed 4500+ troops in the Baltic countries and Poland since 2016. Four new battlegroups were added after 2022.
Strength of the Baltic countries…
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are small countries, but their defense is strong with NATO support. Lithuania will spend 5% of its GDP on defense in 2025. NATO has deployed 4500+ troops in the Baltic countries and Poland since 2016. Four new battlegroups were added after 2022.
Can Russia fight Europe alone?
Russia’s military might is impressive, but it is impossible for it to fight all of Europe or NATO alone. Here are the reasons…
*Difference in numbers: NATO’s army (3.5 million) is more than twice that of Russia (1.5 million).
*Economic strength: NATO countries have a combined GDP of over $70 trillion, while Russia’s GDP is only $2 trillion. This gives NATO an advantage in a long war.
*Modern technology: NATO has 5th generation weapons and advanced missile defense systems, while many of Russia’s weapons are outdated.
*Strength of alliance: NATO’s Article 5 (collective defense) ensures that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. It is difficult for Russia to fight 31 countries simultaneously.
*Lessons from Ukraine: Russia has suffered heavy losses in the Ukraine war. Experts believe that Russia needs 5 years to regenerate its army.
However, Russia can weaken NATO by using hybrid warfare (such as cyberattacks, espionage, and propaganda) and tactical nuclear weapons.
Where will the next front open: the Baltics or Poland?
After the Ukraine war, experts believe Russia could target the following regions…
The Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania)
These countries are adjacent to Russia and Belarus. They were formerly part of the Soviet Union. Putin considers them to be in Russia’s sphere of influence. The Baltic countries are small and geographically isolated from Western NATO. They are near Russia’s Kaliningrad region, which increases the military threat.
The Baltic countries have increased defense spending. They are building a “Baltic Defense Line”, which includes bunkers, anti-tank trenches, and dragon teeth. Russia could destabilize these countries through hybrid warfare (such as the use of undeclared troops in the Donbass in 2014).
Poland
Poland is Russia’s historic rival and supports Ukraine. Russia’s ally Kadyrov has called Poland the next target for “denazification.” Poland shares a 500-mile border with Russia and Belarus. If Russia wins in Ukraine, Poland could be the next target.
Poland is increasing its army to 500,000. It is giving military training to every male. It is also signing a nuclear security agreement with France. The Suwalki Gap (a 60-mile area between Poland and Lithuania) is strategically important for Russia. Capturing it could cut off the Baltic countries from NATO.
Non-NATO countries (such as Moldova)…
Experts believe that Russia may first target a non-NATO country such as Moldova, as NATO Article 5 will not apply to it.
Where is the next frontier?
Baltic countries more vulnerable: They are easy targets due to their small population and proximity to Russia. Russia can destabilize them through hybrid means (such as cyber attacks or undeclared troops).
Poland strong but at risk: Poland’s military strength and NATO presence make it strong, but the Suwalki Gap and Russian threats put it at risk.
Possibility: Experts believe that Russia may first target a non-NATO country (such as Moldova). If Russia attacks a NATO country, the Baltic countries could be primary targets.
Preparing for Europe
Poland: Giving military training to every male. Will prepare 100,000 reserve soldiers by 2026.
Baltic countries: Building bunkers, increasing defense spending. Conducting joint exercises with NATO.
NATO: 8 battlegroups deployed in the Baltics and Poland. The US plans to deploy a permanent armored brigade in Poland.
