Kumar Bahukhandi
The Election Commission will announce the election dates for the 5 states today. (Photo: ITG)
The Election Commission will announce the dates for the assembly elections in West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Puducherry today at 4:00 PM. With the commencement of the press conference, the Model Code of Conduct will come into force across all five states. In Bengal, Mamata’s prestige is on the line this time, while in the South, a fierce contest is expected between regional parties and the BJP.
The formal announcement regarding the assembly elections in five states across the country is set to take place today. The Election Commission will hold a press conference at Vigyan Bhawan in Delhi at 4:00 PM, during which the official election dates for West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and the Union Territory of Puducherry will be declared. The Model Code of Conduct will come into effect immediately across all these poll-bound states. Consequently, the incumbent governments will be barred from implementing any new schemes or making populist announcements.
The Assam Legislative Assembly comprises 126 seats, Kerala has 140, Tamil Nadu 234, West Bengal 294, and the Union Territory of Puducherry has 30 assembly seats. In these states, the challenge varies: for some, it is a battle to retain power, while for others, it is an attempt to create history by coming to power for the very first time.
The electoral results and political developments in these five states will not only determine the political landscape within these specific regions but will also play a pivotal role in shaping the future trajectory and direction of the entire nation. West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala are states where the BJP has, thus far, been unable to capture power; conversely, in Assam, the party is keen to return to power for a third consecutive term, and in Puducherry, for a second term. Against this backdrop—spanning from Bengal to Kerala and Tamil Nadu—what exactly are the challenges at play, and what does the political arithmetic reveal?
In Bengal: Mamata’s Trial by Fire; The BJP’s Challenge is No Less Formidable
Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has held the reins of power in West Bengal for 15 years. In the upcoming 2026 elections, the BJP remains the primary challenger standing in her path. Mamata Banerjee has been at the helm of West Bengal’s administration since 2011, and her party—the TMC—has successfully won three consecutive assembly elections. Against this backdrop, Mamata Banerjee is striving for a fourth consecutive victory, while the BJP is desperate to secure a win at any cost.
The current term of the Bengal Legislative Assembly is set to conclude on May 7, 2026. Bengal comprises a total of 294 assembly seats. In the 2021 elections, the TMC won 213 seats, whereas the BJP secured only 77. Consequently, this election serves as a test for Mamata Banerjee to retain her hold on power, while for the Left parties and the Congress, it is a battle to preserve their political relevance.
The challenge facing the BJP has intensified primarily due to the severe decline of the Congress and the Left parties; instead of their votes shifting toward the BJP, a larger share has gravitated toward the TMC. Over the last two elections, the BJP’s vote share increased by a mere 1.5 percent, whereas the Trinamool Congress garnered an additional 3 percent of the votes. Nevertheless, given Mamata Banerjee’s 15-year tenure in power, there is an underlying anti-incumbency wave—a sentiment the BJP is actively attempting to capitalize on.
The Test for the INDIA and NDA Alliances in Tamil Nadu
In South India, Tamil Nadu stands as the only state in the country where neither the Congress nor the BJP has formed a government for the past six decades. The political landscape here has historically been dominated by the DMK and the AIADMK. This time around, the BJP has forged an alliance with the AIADMK, while the Congress has joined forces with the DMK. Furthermore, superstar Vijay’s party, the TVK, has also entered the electoral fray, making the contest even more intriguing.
The current term of the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly is scheduled to end on May 10, 2026. The state comprises a total of 234 assembly seats. In 2021, under the leadership of M.K. Stalin, the DMK returned to power by securing victory in 133 seats. As part of its alliance with the DMK, the Congress also succeeded in winning 18 seats. The AIADMK, which had held power in the state for 10 years, managed to win a mere 66 seats. The BJP, contesting in alliance with the AIADMK, secured four seats.
Much has changed in the run-up to the 2026 assembly elections. While Stalin faces the trial by fire of retaining his government, the AIADMK is equally eager to stage a comeback. In this year’s Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, the contest involves not only the NDA and the INDIA bloc but also a “Third Front” that has entered the fray. Tamil actor Thalapathy Vijay, by establishing his own party—the Tamizhaga Vettri Kazhagam—has transformed the traditional DMK-versus-AIADMK battle into a triangular contest. It remains uncertain whose electoral fortunes the superstar Vijay will make or mar; consequently, both the DMK and the AIADMK remain on high alert.
Kerala: The Challenge of Defending the Left’s Last Bastion
Kerala is the only state in the country where a Left-led government currently remains in power. The state has historically followed a tradition of alternating governments; however, in 2021, the Left Front defied this trend by securing a second consecutive term in office—thereby making history. This time around, the Left faces the formidable challenge of defending its political stronghold in Kerala, while the Congress-led UDF is maneuvering to end its decade-long political exile.
The Congress-led alliance is striving to stage a comeback this time by leveraging the issue of anti-incumbency. To date, the BJP has not managed to win a single Assembly seat in Kerala. Nevertheless, by capturing the Thrissur Lok Sabha seat in the 2024 general elections and securing control of the Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation in December 2025, the party has demonstrated its growing strength—a development that now poses a significant challenge to both the UDF and the LDF.
The current term of the Kerala Legislative Assembly is set to conclude on May 23, 2026. The Left Front—which secured power in Kerala for a second consecutive term—faces a formidable challenge from the UDF. If Pinarayi Vijayan succeeds in Kerala for a third time, it will mark a historic record; however, should he face defeat, it could lead to the complete eradication of the Left’s political presence from the country. The electoral contest in Kerala is primarily a showdown between the Left-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF alliances.
In the 2021 elections, the LDF successfully retained power, securing 99 seats. This time around, the Congress party is striving to make a comeback and regain power. Given that Priyanka Gandhi is a Member of Parliament from Kerala—and that K.C. Venugopal, widely regarded as Rahul Gandhi’s right-hand man, also hails from the state—the Congress is particularly keen to return to power, while the BJP remains focused on expanding its own political support base.
A BJP Hat-trick or a Congress Comeback in Assam?
The BJP has been in power in Assam for 10 years and has thrown its entire weight behind its bid to return for a third consecutive term. The BJP first assumed power in Assam in 2016 and went on to create history in 2021. The party has set itself a target of winning over 100 seats in the 126-seat Assam Legislative Assembly. Key issues dominating the political landscape here include Bangladeshi infiltration, border security, and Assamese identity. In an effort to thwart the BJP, the Congress has forged an alliance with eight other political parties. The Congress is determined to bring an end to its prolonged political exile.
The current term of the Assam Legislative Assembly is set to conclude on May 20, 2026. In this context, during the 2021 Assam Assembly elections, the BJP-led NDA retained power by securing victory in 75 out of the 126 seats. The Congress-led alliance won 50 seats. Himanta Biswa Sarma serves as the Chief Minister of Assam; the BJP has entered the electoral fray with him as its face.
In Assam, a “third front” is represented by Badruddin Ajmal, a key figure in Muslim politics. However, while the BJP faces some public resentment stemming from its ten years in power, the Congress is grappling with internal tensions regarding its leadership. Given the manner in which the BJP is playing the “Hindutva card,” a return to power in Assam has become a formidable challenge for the Congress.
NDA vs. INDIA Bloc: The Battle in Puducherry
The current term of the Legislative Assembly in the Union Territory of Puducherry is scheduled to end on June 15, 2026. Puducherry possesses the legislative assembly with the fewest seats in the country. In 2021, the AINRC-BJP alliance formed the government after ousting the Congress from power. N. Rangasamy became the Chief Minister. This marked the first instance in which the BJP became a direct partner in the government in Puducherry. This time around, the Congress—in alliance with the DMK—is attempting to stage a comeback and aims to leverage the issue of the previous government’s collapse to fuel anti-incumbency sentiment.
In the previous elections held in 2021, the alliance between the All India N.R. Congress (AINRC) and the BJP formed the government by winning 16 out of the total 30 seats. The AINRC secured 10 seats, while the BJP won 6; in stark contrast, the Congress managed to win only 2 seats. Currently, AINRC founder N. Rangasamy serves as the Chief Minister. Once again, the contest is between the NDA and the INDIA Bloc. Consequently, both sides face distinct challenges: the BJP-led alliance is fighting to retain power, while the Congress is eager to make a comeback.
