Kumar Bahukhandi
The key element of the puzzle would be to find out whether there is a connection between the terror module uncovered by the J& K police and the Monday evening blast. Then the pieces of the puzzle will fall in place. The investigation agencies would not want to jump to any hasty conclusions. — Internet
Authro
Apart from the possible Pakistan angle, Indian authorities face the challenge of assessing the security situation in the national capital
Monday on Novemvber 10, 2025 evening’s blast near the Red Fort Metro station in Old Delhi is a terrorist attack by the looks of it. This was no accident. A slow-moving i20 Hyundai hatchback exploded, killing over a dozen people and injuring a core and more seriously. The media, especially the television channels, were running ahead of story, and tried to connect it with the arrest of several individuals, including doctors, from Faridabad, and others in Kashmir, who were nabbed with 2,900 kg of ammonium nitrate. The arrests were made by the Jammu and Kashmir police after posters of the Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM) appeared in Srinagar warning of a terror attack.
The investigating agencies — including the Delhi police, the National Investigating Agency and the Forensic Science Laboratory — have not yet arrived at any conclusions, even a provisional one. Union home minister Amit Shah said that investigations are on. Prime Minister Narendra Modi said from Thimphu (he is on a two-day Bhutan visit) that those behind the blast will not be spared. So far, neither the leaders nor investigating agencies have named names. There’s more than an abundance of caution in the stance of the government.
The stakes are quite high. It has been declared by the armed forces that Operation Sindoor is not over, and it will be activated if there is a terror attack masterminded from the other side, that is Pakistan. Pakistan cannot say it is not responsible if a non-state actor is involved.
India has stated its policy that Pakistan will be held responsible for any attack from any outfit based on Pakistani soil. If the Red Fort blast is then traced back to a terrorist outfit based in Pakistan, India is bound to retaliate.
The Indian authorities want to be doubly sure about the involvement of a jihadi group from the Pakistan side. That is one of the chief aims of the blast investigation, apart from getting forensic details of the blast itself. The Delhi police had on Monday evening said it is not yet known what caused the car blast. There is some media speculation about whether RDX or some other explosive was used, such as possibly ammonium nitrate. This would of course require a closer look at the trajectory of the blast impact. Reports say that body parts were thrown 20 to 25 metres away. It was a powerful blast.
The key element of the puzzle would be to find out whether there is a connection between the terror module uncovered by the J& K police and the Monday evening blast. Then the pieces of the puzzle will fall in place. The investigation agencies would not want to jump to any hasty conclusions.
The changed and charged political atmosphere in Pakistan, with the Army moving into the driver’s set as it were — for the last decade or so it has been pulling the levers of power from behind — makes it a plausible agent provocateur. Newly-created Field Marshal Asim Munir and his lieutenants in the Army seem defiant about supporting jihadi groups in Pakistan. Top Army officers participated in the funerals of jihadis killed in Operation Sindoor. Pakistan’s political and military leaders may want to believe that US President Donald Trump is in their camp after the unusual reception Field Marshal Munir received at the White House, once on his own and the other time with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. So, Mr Trump’s stance would be of significance for Pakistan.
Apart from the possible Pakistan angle, Indian authorities face the challenge of assessing the security situation in the national capital. There have been no terror incidents Delhi for over a decade. A briefcase bomb blast outside Delhi high court in September 2011 had killed 15 and injured 79 people. Harkat-un-Mujahideen (HuM) had claimed responsibility, and Indian Mujahideen had a hand in executing the diabolical plan. Despite posters in Srinagar warning of an attack, there has as yet been no statement from JeM.
Confrontation with Pakistan is something that the political establishments in India and Pakistan would welcome. It’s a grand distraction for both governments. But it does not lead anywhere. It all ends in an impasse of varied degrees. And each side can invoke the unimpeachable imperatives of national security for taking up the no-holds-barred stern stance.
It is likely that the Narendra Modi government would maintain tactical silence — no loud statements about hitting back — until the investigation into the blast is completed, and the future plan of action is charted. It is also not to be ruled out that the government would look at the possibility of domestic terror sources arising from the Kashmir Valley.
The security situation in Kashmir remains veiled. It is natural that the government, and in the case of Kashmir, it is the Central government, and more specifically the Union home ministry, and home minister Amit Shah, who would have the information. Strategy requires they keep vital information to themselves. But what is needed is action, and it cannot be solely based on security concerns.
The civilian spaces should be made as free as possible, and vigilance has to remain as unobtrusive as possible. These are not impractical suggestions, but realistic imperatives. It would be easier to detect discontent and also the individuals and groups who want to take advantage of the discontent. There is also the overriding compulsion to determine breaches in security.
It is natural there will be slip-ups in the flanks. There is no need to hide the gaps in the security system as long as there is no blame game at work at any level. Systems always need to be improvised and mended. It is evident of course that Prime Minister Modi and home minister Shah do not believe in democratic transparency.
he author is a Delhi-based commentator and analyst
