Kumar Bahukhandi
Lucknow: The dates for the assembly by-elections in Uttar Pradesh have not been announced yet. But the political buzz is as if the elections are going to be held tomorrow. However, the Congress, which is in alliance with the Samajwadi Party, will get an idea of the shortcomings of its organisation from this by-election.
While the Samajwadi Party, which is excited by its good performance in the Lok Sabha, will understand the equation in the elections on 27th. In such a situation, the BJP is also not in favor of giving a walkover to any party. This is the reason why Yogi Adityanath is constantly visiting and distributing appointment letters in employment fairs, as well as fixing the screws of the organisation including local leaders.
In this episode, the head of the state, CM Yogi, will go to Moradabad on September 2 to instill enthusiasm in the people of the organisation. However, Moradabad is the home district of BJP state president Bhupendra Chaudhary. Therefore, the Kundarki by-election is also a question of prestige for the party. Therefore, the BJP is not ready to leave any stone unturned for this seat. BJP leaders have started efforts to strengthen their claim for the by-election on the Kundarki assembly seat of Moradabad district. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath will distribute appointment letters to the youth at Aryabhatta International School in Moradabad on September 2 and will also address a public meeting. He will understand the equation of the seat by holding a meeting with the party officials.
If we look at the caste equation of Moradabad, the number of people who believe in Rashtriya Lok Dal is abundant on this seat. This is the reason why BJP can give this seat to RLD. The experiment done earlier in the by-election on Swar assembly seat under Rampur district can be done in Moradabad as well. BJP had given the Swar seat to its ally Apna Dal, where victory was achieved by the Muslim candidate.
The secret of Kundarki: Saffron flag was hoisted only once
The Kundarki assembly seat came to the fore in the delimitation held in 1967. After this, assembly elections were held 15 times. In the political history so far, BJP candidate Chandra Vijay Singh had won only once in 1993. After this, the Kundarki assembly seat has been occupied by SP and BSP only. Mostly Muslim candidates have been winning the Kundarki seat.
Caste equation of Kundarki seat
There are 65 percent Muslim and 35 percent Hindu voters here. On which the BJP organisation has never been able to provide a permanent solution. In the year 2022 assembly elections, SP’s Zia-ur-Rehman contested from Kundarki seat. BJP had fielded Kamal Kumar against him. SP won this seat by 43,162 votes. Earlier, BJP had given ticket to Ramveer Singh in the year 2017 elections, but he too could not win. The reason behind this is the political equation of Kundarki seat. There are 65 percent Muslim and around 35 percent Hindu voters.
The biggest challenge for BJP on Kundarki seat has been the unity of Muslim votes. It is difficult for BJP to win this seat without making inroads into Muslim votes. Here the largest vote bank in the Muslim community is of Turks. After that, Muslim Rajputs are in second place.
If BJP bets on Basit Ali as a political experiment on Kundarki Lok Sabha seat, then he will be the first leader of the party to contest assembly elections in UP. Basit comes from the Muslim Rajput community. It is believed that if Basit Ali is successful in garnering Muslim Rajput votes, then if Hindu voters remain united, then the political game of SP here will be spoiled. There are Thakur, Saini and Dalit voters on Kundarki seat.
Apart from this, if BJP fields a Muslim candidate in Kundarki, then through this it can also be successful in giving a political message to Moradabad, Rampur and Sambhal districts in future. Muslim Turks are around 70 thousand and Muslim Rajputs are 40 thousand. In such a situation, BJP can play a bet to spoil the political equation of SP by fielding a Muslim Rajput.
BJP is trying to play chess
BJP fielded party leader Ramveer Singh twice for Kundarki assembly. He tried hard both the times, but could not succeed in winning the election. This seat has fallen vacant after Ziaur Rahman became MP from Sambhal. This seat is said to be the stronghold of Turks. Haji Rizwan, who rebelled against SP in year 2022 and joined BSP, has been MLA from Kundarki four times. Haji Rizwan has returned to SP again. In such a situation, this seat looks like an impenetrable fortress for the Bharatiya Janata Party.
However, after the alliance between RLD and BJP, a change in the political equation is being seen. BJP’s state president Bhupendra Chaudhary comes from this area. Whereas the report card of the Lok Sabha elections held during his tenure was not very good. In such a situation, Bhupendra Chaudhary’s credibility is also at stake.
